The 2017 coal and steel capacity reduction plan of

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National Development and Reform Commission: the 2017 coal and steel capacity reduction plan will be released before the Spring Festival

on the 10th, the State Council Office held a press conference on leading the new normal of economic development and deepening supply side reform. Xu Shaoshi, director of the national development and Reform Commission, said in the release that the requirements for capacity reduction in 2017 will be higher, "three deletions, one reduction, one subsidy" will be heavier and the pressure will be greater, Therefore, if some of the products displayed by the company can not meet the needs of customers, the Reform Commission is preparing a plan for reducing the capacity of steel and coal in 2017, which can be issued before the Spring Festival to scientifically determine the task objectives

Xu Shaoshi said that he did encounter many new problems and situations in the process of capacity reduction last year, such as the contradiction between supply and demand, price fluctuations, etc. Price is a very important indicator, and the baton of price plays a very important role in the whole supply and demand

in the process of reducing the production capacity of steel and coal last year, the national development and Reform Commission has been tracking, analyzing and judging its price changes, and the price fluctuations are relatively large

Xu Shaoshi said that last year, the price index of steel was only about 60 at the beginning of the year. In the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, the price index rose to about 100, and the price also increased significantly. The average price of four kinds of steel, high-speed wire, deformed steel, cold-rolled sheet and medium and heavy plate, was more than 2200 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year, and reached 3800 yuan by the end of the year. At the beginning of the year, the price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal was 370 yuan per ton, which once exceeded 680 yuan in the second half of the year, and fluctuated around 600 yuan per ton by the end of the year

in this regard, Xu Shaoshi believes that the first is the oversold in the early stage, that is, the oversold price when the economic growth slows down; Second, inventory replenishment. Because the economic operation is relatively stable, enterprises need to replenish inventory; Third, take the initiative to reduce production. Steel and coal enterprises have reduced production according to the need to reduce production capacity; Fourth, the policy expectations, we feel that the intensity of capacity reduction is increasing, the supply may be reduced, and the price may rise. But on the whole, there is no fundamental change in the fundamentals of supply and demand. Price fluctuation is the comprehensive result of a short-term factor, which is also in line with the trend of stable economy and increasing demand

Xu Shaoshi stressed that there are also some complex factors that affect price fluctuations. For example, from July to November, the growth rate of power generation was 6.8% - 8%, but the growth rate of power generation in the first half of the year was only 1%. The core of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform of power generation is to improve the production efficiency of manufacturing industry and reduce labor. After that, the demand for power coal will increase. It is estimated that the demand for power coal will increase by at least about 60million tons. In addition, highway management usually uses low conversion rate overload and overrun, and the railway capacity has also changed. After last October, it happened that the overhaul of the Datong Qinhuangdao line, affecting the traffic volume of about 200000 tons per day. In addition, after October last year, some funds flowed to the futures market, especially the coal price, which is more complex from the perspective of short-term comprehensive factors

in response to this situation, the national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and industry associations, has taken measures. First, orderly release efficient advanced production capacity and increase production. The second is to guide coal power enterprises to sign long-term agreements with coal enterprises or break contracts under 3-point static zigzag load, and change its trading mode, which also plays a positive role. The third is to standardize the compilation and release of coal price indexes. At present, there are two major coal price indexes in China. The first is the Bohai Rim thermal coal index, which is the price index of 5500 kcal of coal in Qinhuangdao; The second is the CCI index, that is, the Fen Wei index of Shanxi, which is also a price index of coal. The national development and Reform Commission invites relevant departments to step in, further standardize the preparation of these price indexes, publish these price indexes, and correctly guide expectations. Fourth, standardize coal distribution activities and strengthen railway transportation guarantee. The railway corporation is very supportive. After the heating period began last year, 85000 wagons and 5million tons of transportation capacity will be guaranteed every day to meet the needs of heating and power generation in the northern region

Xu Shaoshi pointed out that the demand for capacity reduction will be higher this year. The task of "three reductions, one reduction and one compensation" will be heavier and the pressure will be greater. We are preparing a plan for the capacity reduction of steel and coal in 2017. This plan can be down before the spring Festival to scientifically determine the task objectives. To further strengthen safety standards and backward production capacity standards, "zombie enterprises" must act as "Bulls' noses" and speed up the withdrawal and shutdown. At the same time, we should keep four bottom lines: the bottom line of safe production, the bottom line of proper placement of workers, the bottom line of compliance with laws, regulations and integrity, and the bottom line of ensuring stable supply

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