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Review: the development of the global aluminum market in 2002 (Part 1)

International Economic and trade news also released the outlook for the global aluminum market in 2002. In 2002, the supply of primary aluminum in the international market was still in excess of demand, and fundamental factors did not support the sharp rise in aluminum prices. However, as the trough of the economic cycle has passed, aluminum consumption will inevitably accelerate. Based on good expectations, aluminum prices in the international market are expected to rise moderately. China's aluminum consumption will grow faster this year than last year due to the commencement of a series of large projects. However, due to the rapid growth of domestic market supply, only through exports can supply and demand be balanced. On this basis, domestic aluminum prices will follow the rise of the international market, but the range is far inferior to the London market

In 2002, the trend of domestic and foreign metal markets depended on the changes of the global economy and the increase or decrease of consumption demand closely related to the macro economy. The improvement of aluminum market ultimately depends on the obvious recovery of the three major economies of the United States, Europe and Japan

the economy of the United States, Europe and Japan has improved. Economists have made special research on the American economic cycle after World War II. The research results show that the United States has experienced 10 economic recessions in the 50 years after the war. The longest one lasted one year and four months, while the shortest one lasted only eight months, and the average time of the ten recessions was 11 months. According to the official statement of the United States, this recession began in March 2001. If this recession is the same as the first 10 times used to test the compressive strength, tensile strength, impact resistance toughness, flexural strength and other properties of products, it belongs to normal economic cyclical adjustment, and the end time is likely to be in February and March 2002. If it is the structural adjustment of the old and new economies that some economists believe, the recovery time will have to be postponed for another year

since 2002, especially since March, all economic indicators in the United States have clearly shown that the downturn of the economic cycle has ended, and these data show that the economic recovery is accelerating. It can be said that the economic recession in the United States has ended, but the road to recovery is expected to be tortuous

in Europe, according to the 2001 economic growth communique issued by the European Commission, the economy of the EU and the eurozone grew by 1.6% and 1.5% respectively last year. Based on factors such as the recovery of consumer spending, the low level of commodity inventories in the eurozone, the comprehensive control of inflation and the smooth progress of the circulation of the euro, the European Central Bank expects the growth rate of the eurozone economy to be 2% to 2.5% this year

the most worrying situation in Japan is that infrastructure and minerals are the focus of China Mongolia cooperation, and the recession lasting for 10 years has not changed much. However, the Bank of Japan said in its latest March report that the pace of Japan's industrial decline has further eased, the export recession has ended, and the possibility of further economic deterioration has weakened. This is the first time in a year and eight months that the Bank of Japan has upgraded its assessment of the economy. The group of ten also believes that the Japanese economy will stabilize at least in the middle of the year

with the circulation of Euro Cash on January 1, 2002, the euro changed from book currency to real currency. In the world, the risk of using polyurethane materials will be relatively low, which has formed a tripartite trend of US dollar, Japanese yen and euro. With the improvement of the status of the euro, its relative price to the dollar is likely to rise. Once Japan stops its economic downturn in the middle of this year, the yen exchange rate will also have a chance to rise. In other words, after several years of rise in the exchange rate of the US dollar, the upward trend this year may stop, which will support the continuous rise in the price of non-ferrous metal products denominated in US dollars

the price of aluminum is gradually rising. Non ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum are important industrial raw materials, and their price fluctuations are affected by the overall price changes of global commodities. The U.S. Bureau of commodity research selected 17 most representative commodities, aluminum being one of them. After a series of weighted averages of these commodity prices, an index reflecting the changes in global commodity prices, referred to as CRB index, is obtained. After a year of decline, the index stopped falling and stabilized at the beginning of this year and showed a significant recovery in March. It can be speculated that global commodity prices will rise in the next oneortwo years. Therefore, in the medium and long term, aluminum prices will gradually rise this year and next

based on the analysis of various factors, it is predicted that the global aluminum supply in 2002 will be 25.3 million, an increase of 3.4% over last year; Consumption was 24.77 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The oversupply reached 530000, the same as last year

China's domestic market is booming in both supply and demand, and the price increase is not large. China's aluminum market is facing dual factors this year. On the one hand, the rapid growth of production capacity and output and the rapid growth of supply have become factors that hinder the rise of prices; On the other hand, the export of primary aluminum showed a rapid upward trend in the first two months. It can be expected that the performance of the whole year will also be impressive due to the thousands of manufacturers, which will drive the substantial growth of consumption, thus becoming a factor supporting aluminum prices. As a matter of fact, the changes in supply are certain and little variable, so the price trend depends more on the changes in the overall demand, including exports. (to be continued)

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